Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets [Unabridged] [Audible Audio Edition] Author: | Language: English | ISBN:
B0012IZFRW | Format: PDF, EPUB
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This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition,
Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is.
The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit". Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance.
It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Direct download links available for Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets [Unabridged] [Audible Audio Edition] Free PDF
- Audible Audio Edition
- Listening Length: 10 hours and 1 minute
- Program Type: Audiobook
- Version: Unabridged
- Publisher: Gildan Media, LLC
- Audible.com Release Date: January 7, 2008
- Whispersync for Voice: Ready
- Language: English
- ASIN: B0012IZFRW
REVIEW: This book tends to elicit very strong opinions about its quality (both very good and very bad) so it is important to know which camp you are in before you purchase it or you may be very disappointed. I found that both the very bullish and the very bearish reviews have significant merit. On the plus side Taleb aggressively addresses a topic that many readers will be interested in - randomness in our daily lives. He discusses many important concepts that are not known or at least not very well understood by the general public and experts alike. These include: 1) that uncertainty and luck play a large role in the outcomes of human activities (much more than most people think); 2) that a correlation between two types of events does not necessarily mean that one causes the other; 3) that statistics and the rare random event are poorly understood by almost everyone; 4) that small differences in performance and ability can cause very large differences in the rewards or difficulties that people obtain in life; and 5) that humans are very irrational beings and are not very good at thinking probabilistically and understanding the probabilities of even everyday events rationally. All of these are important points that I commend Taleb for bringing to our attention.
However, there are significant drawbacks to this book, which to some readers will make the book significantly unenjoyable or even impossible to read. While it did not significantly bother me, Taleb does have an attitude or style which at times tends to the snobbish. The author repeatedly reminds readers that he is well traveled, is a "voracious" reader, pursues his exercise routines "assiduously", and is from upper class Mediterranean roots.
Anyone who holds any doubts in regards to the validity of this book must read Edward Chancellor's 'Devil Take the Hindmost,' which provides a history of financial markets from the dawn of the Roman Empire up to now. After reading such a sweeping historical account, one sees the financial markets for exactly what they have always been: one vast bubble machine where people have even invested in, according to Chancellor, a company that refused to explain anything about what it did but simply assured the investors that it had a great idea for making money. Sounds rather similar to some of the dot coms in recent years. Through a compliation of both antecdotes and thoughts, Taleb provides an explanation as to why the markets work in this way, why so many fail to realize this, and how these issues are mirrored in our everyday lives. He addresses many issues that everyone should understand in order to view the world in a realistic manner. Evolution is not a one way road to nirvana but rather the process through which those adapted to the current situation fare better, and they may not be best adopted when things change. When judging the validity of any strategy in business or in life one must consider that the winners write the history books; you can only talk to survivors of war but that certainly doesn't mean that everyone survives it. When deducing anything from viewing a sample you must consider the forces that created that sample: should you consider yourself unintelligent because you're behind your classmates at a top law school? Are a good outcome and a good decision the same thing, and likewise for a bad outcome and a bad decision? And the list goes on.
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